This Remarkable Golden Spell Drives Aston Villa's Unlikely Championship Bid
A mere 60 days ago that the young forward stood on the Sunderland turf, appearing bewildered while his coach berated him for not reading a through-ball. Back then, as the club endured a six-game winless run, it wasn't clear whether his performances were a sign or the source for the side's wider issues.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
In the latest match, however, the manager's outburst proved to be far more favourable. When Rogers curled home his second strike to reclaim his side's advantage, the Spanish tactician tore off his jacket, threw his arms wide and bellowed. The Birmingham club were on their way to a 10th successive win , despite not winning their opening six games, now sit only three points adrift of table-toppers Arsenal.
Is This Team Genuine Challengers?
This is a particularly tough question to resolve. Past precedent, the traditional standing of Villa, suggests not. Furthermore, they've rarely been wholly dominant during this run, even as the victories have stacked up.
As per statistical analysis, twice all season has the team posted an xG significantly higher than their opponents. For a club which has strung together ten consecutive victories, Villa appear curiously susceptible – yet at the moment the margins are going in their favour.
The Reliant Strategy
The prevailing tactic seems to be to exchange chances with rivals and wait for Rogers to rescue them with a couple of precise efforts. This was the case away to Leeds, it transpired against West Ham, and it happened against the Red Devils.
Rogers' first goal stemmed from a superb shot, arced right inside the upright from the corner of the box. His brace-completing goal proved to be a somewhat messier replica of his first as he seized on a pass from Watkins.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Is It Sustainable?
Common sense dictates no. Against United, the opposition registered more shots and more direct attempts. The team has secured their last eight victories by a single goal. They’ve conceded in all except one of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean might be the greatest opponent the club must confront as the season progresses. Rogers, almost certainly, cannot keep on thrashing the ball past despairing goalkeepers forever.
A Case for Belief
Perhaps there is another reality in which, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players may yet rediscover their best form.
- Ollie Watkins may begin to adding to his goal tally.
- The winger might become the force he was during his peak.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres will eventually come back from the treatment room, bolstering a periodically leaky defence.
Maybe within that lies the seeds of a title challenge, however, it is improbable cannot keep relying on Morgan Rogers.
Savoring the Moment
But then, this is a surprise. Nobody thought Aston Villa would sit in a Champions League place in December. And certainly back in October, no one envisioned Rogers by the end of the year would be at the forefront of a hunt for the title and appearing as a vital England player.
This remarkable period should be enjoyed for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. When the hero faced the North End after the match leading the celebrations, he appeared to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. Such periods are uncommon in the sport and must be appreciated.