Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: hopeful statements are released from various governments. Considerable effort is allocated on containing specific proposals. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from across the border, a ability afforded by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to intercept incoming aerial threats streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: several firings fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably provided by Western nations. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from devastation and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a heavy machine gun engaged a drone in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – most likely imported technology. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: seven people killed, devastation and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a need that European nations are clearly incapable to fill in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from Washington generated strong feelings, debate and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from US leadership unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, no doubt, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame certain parties of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington functions according to a principle understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government assumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to surrender the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does nothing to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the current condition will not shift further in its benefit in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing civilians and areas but preventing a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: personal goals to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to kill the 28 points of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate certain reluctance to modify developments, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, largely rely on continued Western support.
