Daily Murders in the nation Drop 37% During the Sheinbaum Administration, Per Government Figures

The mean figure of daily killings monthly in the country has dropped by 37% since President Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, per new administrative statistics. Nevertheless, security analysts have warned that murder data could fail to signal improved countrywide stability.

Significant Drop in Daily Numbers

There was an mean of nearly 55 homicides a day in last November versus nearly 87 when Sheinbaum took the leadership in September of last year. This announcement was provided by the chief of the nation's national public security system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s daily news conference on a recent Tuesday.

“The outcome in killings that we have seen over these months is extremely important,” the President remarked, noting that in November the smallest number of homicides were documented for any November in the past 10 years.

Historical Background and Government Plan

Intense cartel internal conflicts, combined with the government’s highly militarised campaigns to take on the drug gangs, have made Mexico’s homicide rate rise sharply in recent years. The rate peaked at a maximum of 36,773 killings in 2020, per the country’s official data agency.

That resulted in Mexico a murder rate more than four times higher than the US. Since then, homicides have been on the decrease, falling to 33,550 in the last calendar year. The President has linked her national security strategy for an seemingly sharper drop in killings this year.

At a news briefing in August, the President stated: “There is a plan, there is tracking of the plan, and we have detailed tracking town by town in some cases. The plan is effective. And we have to continue working at it daily.”

The key elements of Sheinbaum’s safety strategy encompass:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s federal guard.
• Enhancing intelligence and investigative capabilities.
• Greater coordination between government agencies.

Analyst Warnings and Data Concerns

Nevertheless, public safety researchers urged caution that focusing solely on homicide data to assess the situation of peace was misleading. This is particularly true considering the uptick in other criminal activities such as people going missing.

“This would be excellent information if this were a decrease, but I think we must not just concentrate on the murder data and conclude: ‘Well then, excellent,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexican criminal organizations. “I would be guardedly hopeful.”

According to the public policy analysis organization Mexico Evalúa, homicides overall dropped by over 20% in the initial 10 months of the current year versus the same period the previous year. However, disappearances have risen by 15% and in certain states have risen by as much as 200%.

“Statistics on homicides is no longer useful for gauging the reality of insecurity,” argued Armando Vargas, a security analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have police and investigators who do not have the resources or the inclination to properly recognize and categorize remains. Secondly, organised [criminals] … have the ability to hide violence through disappearances.”

Vargas added that using month-to-month means of daily killings was also an issue because it could mask days when there were especially spiking numbers of murders.

“Using the per-day average makes surges of violence invisible,” he concluded.

Arrests and Confiscations as Metrics of Success

An area where the administration can cite the effectiveness of its safety strategy is on detentions and seizures. Nearly 40,000 people were detained between October 2024 and this past November for major offenses, according to government figures. Over 20,000 guns were taken and 311 tonnes of drugs intercepted.

“The former US president cannot claim President Sheinbaum of inaction, because in reality she is doing a lot with these thousands of detentions, many thousands of confiscations, and all the operational weakening of criminal groups. It’s very in political terms advantageous,” stated Vargas.

Persistent Unrest and Societal Anger

Yet in spite of these measures, Mexico remains grappling with severe bloodshed, with multiple states in the throes of cartel-fueled bloodshed. In the previous month there was a prominent assassination of a popular mayor in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 local leaders assassinated in the past 12 months.

A short time after, many thousands of young people demonstrated in the capital and across the nation to voice their frustration at graft and narco-violence.

“The administration frames [data] in a manner to construct a picture of security. Politically it’s highly potent, socially it’s extremely problematic,” the analyst concluded.